میزان دقت نتایج حاصل از مدل های "بنیش" و "توسعه یافته بنیش" براساس محیط اقتصادی ایران در پیش بینی احتمال تجدید ارائه صورتهای مالی

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دکتری حسابداری، دانشگاه تهران، پردیس البرز، تهران، ایران. (

10.22059/frj.2024.353694.1007431

چکیده

هدف. هدف اصلی پژوهش، ارائه معیاری مناسب جهت پیش بینی تجدید ارائه صورتهای مالی با استفاده از مدل های بنیش و توسعه بنیش می باشد.

روش. روش این پژوهش از نوع کاربردی و از نظر روش شناسی، پس رویدادی است. همچنین پژوهش حاضر در حوزه تحقیقات اثباتی حسابداری و مبتنی بر اطلاعات واقعی در صورت های مالی شرکت ها می باشد. همچنین از نرم افزار Spss و پایتون در این پژوهش جهت تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها استفاده شده است.

یافته ها. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از این است که براساس ماتریس درهم ریختگی، در بین مدل های پیش بینی کننده تجدید ارائه صورتهای مالی، توانایی مدل توسعه یافته بنیش با رگرسیون لاجیت 68/68 درصد دقت پیش بینی کل داشته که دارای بالاترین قدرت پیش بینی در مقایسه با مدل اولیه بنیش ( دقت مدل = 43/29 درصد) بوده است.

نتیجه گیری.

جریان درست اطلاعات در بازار سرمایه، به عنوان موتور محرکه اقتصاد، منجر به تصمیم گیری صحیح و منطقی از سوی مشارکت کنندگان می شود و سرانجام توسعه اقتصادی و بهبود رفاه اجتماعی را به ارمغان می آورد. گزارشگری مالی به عنوان یکی از اصلی ترین ابزارهای ارتباطی بین یک شرکت با گروه های مختلف ذینفعان در آن است .بنابراین شفافیت اطلاعاتی و ارائه اطلاعات صحیح و به موقع توسط شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار، یکی از مهمترین عوامل موثر دستیابی به یک بازار سرمایه کاراست

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Development of an eight-factor model for probability estimation Restatement of Financial Statements Based on financial and non-financial ratios

نویسندگان [English]

  • sasan mehrani 1
  • akbar rahimipoor 2
1 1. Associate Professor of Accounting, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 2. Ph.D in Accounting, Tehran University Alborz Campus, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Target. The main goal of the research is to provide a suitable criterion for prediction Restatement of Financial Statements It is using Benish models and Benish development.

Method. The method of this research is applied, and in terms of methodology, it is post-event. Also, the current research is in the field of accounting proof research and is based on real information in the financial statements of companies. The required data has been extracted from the Kodal Exchange site and from the published financial statements and reports of the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period from 2008 to 2019. Also, Spss and Python software were used in this research to analyze the data.

findings. The research results indicate that based on the clutter matrix, among the predictive models Restatement of Financial Statements , the ability of the developed Benish model with logit regression had a total prediction accuracy of 68.68%, which has the highest predictive power compared to the original Benish model (model accuracy = 29.43%).

Conclusion. The correct flow of information in the capital market, as the driving engine of the economy, leads to correct and rational decision making by the participants and finally brings economic development and improvement of social welfare. Financial reporting is one of the main means of communication between a company and different groups of stakeholders. Therefore, information transparency and the provision of correct and timely information by companies admitted to the stock exchange is one of the most important effective factors in achieving a The capital market is efficient .

Target. The main goal of the research is to provide a suitable criterion for prediction Restatement of Financial Statements It is using Benish models and Benish development.

Method. The method of this research is applied, and in terms of methodology, it is post-event. Also, the current research is in the field of accounting proof research and is based on real information in the financial statements of companies. The required data has been extracted from the Kodal Exchange site and from the published financial statements and reports of the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period from 2008 to 2019. Also, Spss and Python software were used in this research to analyze the data.

findings. The research results indicate that based on the clutter matrix, among the predictive models Restatement of Financial Statements , the ability of the developed Benish model with logit regression had a total prediction accuracy of 68.68%, which has the highest predictive power compared to the original Benish model (model accuracy = 29.43%).

Conclusion. The correct flow of information in the capital market, as the driving engine of the economy, leads to correct and rational decision making by the participants and finally brings economic development and improvement of social welfare. Financial reporting is one of the main means of communication between a company and different groups of stakeholders. Therefore, information transparency and the provision of correct and timely information by companies admitted to the stock exchange is one of the most important effective factors in achieving a The capital market is efficient .

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • annual adjustments, Benish model, Benish'
  • s developed model , Restatement of Financial Statements ,