نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه مالی و حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشکدگان فارابی دانشگاه تهران، قم، ایران.
2 گروه مهندسی مالی، دانشکدگان مدیریت دانشگاه تهران، تهران
3 گروه بازارها و نهاد های مالی، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Real option theory shows that uncertainty has a decisive role in investment decisions, because uncertainty affects the future cash flow of companies and exacerbates information asymmetry between managers and shareholders. does Therefore, the current research seeks to examine the effect of cash flow on the relationship between uncertainty and corporate investment. In order to achieve the objectives of the research, the data of 105 companies were used during the period of 2019-2019. Also, Arellano and Bond's two-stage generalized moment method (GMM) was used to fit the research models to avoid endogeneity issues. The research results showed that company-specific uncertainty, market uncertainty, CAPM-based uncertainty and economic uncertainty have a positive and significant effect on investment. These results confirm the point of view of the convex function of the final income of capital and the point of view of the real option of growth for investment, and reject the point of view of the real option of expectation and the point of view of the market structure and production technology. In addition, the results of the research indicate that cash flow aggravates the impact of company-specific uncertainty and economic uncertainty on investment and reduces the impact of market uncertainty and CAPM-based uncertainty on investment. This study has focused on the role of company-specific uncertainty measures, market uncertainty, CAPM-based uncertainty and economic uncertainty in the investment decisions of companies. Also, the current research has examined the effect of cash flow on the relationship between uncertainty and investment. The findings of the first hypothesis of the research showed that uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on investment. In other words, with increasing uncertainty, companies' investment increases. This result confirms the view of the real growth option for investment and the view of the convex function of the marginal return on capital, which argued that more risk means more investment and therefore more reinvestment. Because from the point of view of the real option of growth for investment, an early investment decision can be considered as gaining growth opportunities compared to other competitors, which increases competitive advantages. In addition, an early investment decision can help the company to increase its share in the market and earn more profits. Therefore, the real option value of waiting for investment is greatly reduced due to the competition of competitors. Therefore, the amount of investment of companies depends not only on the uncertainty of the company but also on the cash flow of the company.
According to the results of the research, company managers, investors and policy makers should consider the relationship between uncertainty and investment significantly, especially when formulating investment policies. Company managers should design a sales strategy that helps the stability of sales and cash flow of companies. Because, they prevent their investment expenses from being negatively affected. These strategies may include diversification of sales in domestic markets, internationalization, product quality, competitiveness and higher research and development costs for product innovation. Also, according to the uncertainty coefficients, since economic uncertainty has a higher coefficient, it indicates that economic uncertainty has a greater impact on investment. The finding that companies increase their investment costs during economic instability shows that increasing investment costs of companies during periods of economic turmoil may facilitate the recovery process. Therefore, policymakers should design policies that encourage companies to invest more in periods of economic recession, which in turn will increase economic growth and help overcome the problem of economic stagnation.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
)