The Mediating Effect of Earnings Acceleration on the Relationship between Stock Fragility and the Speed of Stock Price Convergence

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Instructor, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Management, Economics and Accounting, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Prof., Department of Accounting, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Kerman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran.

3 Instructor, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Kerman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran.

Abstract

Objective: In addition to being aware of stock fragility, Investors are considering an Earnings acceleration strategy to understand how companies' financial practices change to achieve the expected returns and the speed of stock price convergence. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the mediating effect of earnings acceleration on the relationship between stock fragility and the speed of stock price convergence.
Methods: The statistical population of this research is the companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, among which data are available for 87 companies and the time horizon from 2009 to 2019. Therefore, 870 years -participation in this study have been examined. Barapratab et al (2015) model has been used to measure the variable of the speed of stock price convergence. Quantum financial theory has been used to measure stock fragility. To test the research hypotheses, the generalized least squares regression model has been used.
Results: The results of the study indicate that there is a positive and significant relationship between stock fragility and the speed of stock price convergence. Expression of earnings also explains the relationship between stock fragility and the speed of stock price convergence.
Conclusion: The convergence of Iranian stock prices has important implications in terms of economy and policy. During periods of stock fragility, stock price convergence generated by one firm rapidly spreads to other subsidiaries in an industry Therefore, it is of special importance to attract investments and reduce the range of risks. Also in emerging markets such as the stock market and the level of investment attitudes in developing societies, as the acceleration in factors such as profits increases, optimistic thinking increases the level of risk-taking and thus generalizes more strongly in the industry or other stocks.

Keywords


Ahmadi Amin, E., & Tahriri, A. (2019).The Effect of Bankruptcy Contagion on Earnings Informativeness. Accounting and Auditing Reviews, 26 (1), 1-18. (in Persian)
Akhgar, M.O., & Karani, F. (2019). Investigating the effect of market friction on financial constraints with emphasis on political relations. Financial Accounting Research, 11 (2), 17-37. (in Persian)
Amountzias, CH. (2019). An investigation of the effects of income inequality on financial fragility: Evidence from Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries. International journal of Finance & Economics, 24, 241–259.
Anand, A., & Venkataraman, K. (2016). Market conditions, fragility, and the economics of market making. Journal of Financial Economics, 121, 327–349.
Azizi, A., Komijani, A., & Rahmani, T. (2019). Effects of Nonperforming Loans on Endogenous Banking Money Creation and Banking Sector Fragility in Iran. Journal of Economic Research and Policy, 27 (91), 43-72. (in Persian)
Badri, A., Fazilat, F., & Shahabi, S. (2014). Association between earning acceleration and stock return. Financial Accounting Knowledge, 1 (2), 55-41. (in Persian)
Ballester, L., Casu, B., & Gonzalez, U. (2016). Bank Fragility and Contagion: Evidence from the bank CDS market. Journal of Empirical Finance, 38(A), 394-416.
Bashiri, S., Pahlavani M., & Boostani R. (2016). Stock Market Fluctuations and Monetary Policy in Iran. jemr. 6 (23), 103-157. (in Persian)
Berument, H., Dincer, N., & Mustafaoglu, Z. (2011). Total factor productivity and macroeconomic instability. Journal of International Trade & Economic, 20(5), 605-629.
Bessembinder, H., Hao, J., & Zheng, K. (2015). Market making contracts, firm value, and the IPO decision. Journal of Finance, 70 (5), 1997 −2028.
Bozorge Asle, M., & Sahebgharani, A.A. (2011). Prediction of abnormal return according profit and industry momentum model in Tehran stock exchange. Empirical studies of financial accounting, 11(38), 53-67. (in Persian)
Bulut, H., Kaya, P., & Kocak, E. (2015). Testing convergence of return on assets: Empirical evidence from the Turkish banking sector. Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 8(2), 40-48.
Cakici, N., &Tan, S. (2014). Size, value, and momentum in developed countries equity returns: Macroeconomic and liquidity exposures. International Journal of Monetary and Finance, 44, 179-209.
Cao, Y., Myers, L.A., & Sougiannis, T. (2011). Does Earning Acceleration Convey Information. Review of Accounting Studies, 16, 812-842.
Caporale, G. M., Erdogan, B., & Kuzin, V. (2015). Testing stock market convergence: a nonlinear factor approach. Empirica, 42(3), 481-498.
Chen, F., Hope, O., Li, Q. & Wang, X. (1988). Financial reporting quality and investment efficiency of private firms in emerging markets. The Accounting Review, 86, 1255–1288.
Chien, M. S., Lee, C. C., Hu, T. C., & Hu, H. T. (2015). Dynamic Asian stock market convergence: Evidence from dynamic cointegration analysis among China and ASEAN. Economic Modelling, 51, 84-98.
Dichow, I. (2010). Measuring value relevance in accounting-based variables without reference to market prices. Journal of Accounting Research, 47 (2), 319-352.
Ebrahimi, M., Shokri, N. (2011). The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices by Emphasizing the Role of Monetary Policy. Economical Modeling, 5(13), 23-45. (in Persian)
Farhani, R., Ghrissi, Mhamdi, G., Aguir, A., & Smida, M. (2015). Effect of Financial Liberalization on the Probability of Occurrence of Banking Crises. Expert Journal of Economics, 3(1), 14–21
Fegheh Majidi, A., Nanavay Sabegh, B., & Mohammadi, A. (2018). An Investigation of the Price Index Convergence Emphasizing on Iran Stock Market. Financial Research Journal, 20(1), 107-129. (in Persian)
Ferreira, M. A., Ferreira, M. A. (2006). The importance of industry and country effects in the EMU equity markets. European Financial Management, 12(3), 341-373.
Ghaemi, M.H., & Kiani, A. (2011). Investigating the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift at Firms and Market Levels.  Journal of Applied Research in Financial Reporting, 2(1), 107-129. (in Persian)
Greenwood, R. (2008). Excess comovement of stock returns: evidence from cross-sectional variation in Nikkei 225 weights. Review of Financial Studies, 21, 1153-1186.
Guerard, J. & Saxena, A. (2018). A Case Study of Forecasted Earnings Acceleration and Stock Selection in Global and Emerging Stock Markets. Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 4(4),1-9.
Gunsel, N. (2012). Micro and macro determinants of bank fragility in North Cyprus economy, African. Journal of Business Management, 6(4), 1323-1329.
Hakkak, M., & Akbari, Z. (2012). Review and test the momentum phenomenon in terms of up and down market. Investment knowledge, 1(3),47-62. (in Persian)
Hasbrouck, J. & Saar, G. (2013). Low-latency trading. Journal of Financial Markets, 16, 646−679.
He, S., Narayanamoorthy, G. (2018). Earnings Acceleration and Stock Returns. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 69(1), 1-34.
Jamei, R., Moradifard, G.R. (2016). Investigating the Effects of Predicted Profits on Stock Price of Listed Companies in Tehran Stock, Journal of Accounting Avances, 8(1), 71-102.
(in Persian)
Khanthavit, A. (2016). The Fast and Slow Speed of Convergence to Market Efficiency A Note for Large and Small Stocks on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Social Science Asia, 2(2), 1-6.
Koulovatianos, Ch., Li, J. & Weber, F. (2018). Market Fragility and the Paradox of the Recent Stock-Bond, Economics Letters, 589, 162–166.
Kuronen, A.M. (2013). What drives earnings acceleration and does it convey valuable information? Aalto University, P.O. BOX 11000, 00076 AALTO, www.aalto.fi
Lin, L., & Guo, X.Y. (2019). Identifying Fragility for the Stock Market: Perspective from the Portfolio Overlaps Network. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 62, 132-151.
Liu, X., Hu, C., Huang, B., & Foley, M. (2010). Momentum and market States: International Evidence. Journal of International Finance and Economics, 10(4), 80-88.
Mathieu, J. E., & Taylor, S. R. (2006). Clarifying conditions and decision points for mediational type inferences in organizational behavior. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 27(8), 1031-1056.
Miao, J., Wang, P., & Xu, Z. (2013). A Bayesian DSGE Model of Stock Market Bubbles and Business Cycles. manuscript, Journal of the Econometric Society, 6(3), 599-635.
Mirzakhani, H., & Nouri, A. (2013). Identifying the most important factors increasing investment risk in Iran's industrial sector and providing solutions to reduce their negative effects. Economic Journal, 13(9,10), 23-48. (in Persian)
Mohammadian, A. (2018). The effect of entropy on the relationship between auditor expertise and profit acceleration. Master Thesis of Azad University, Kerman Branch. (in Persian)
Mohseni, A. (2018). Political connections and the cost of equity capital in listed firms on Tehran Stock Exchange. Financial Engineering and Portfolio management, 9(34), 273-291. (in Persian)
Moslemi, A., & Sadripour, M. (2015). Investigating the relationship between dividend announcement, stock trading volume and stock price. International Conference on New Paradigms of Business and Organizational Intelligence Management, Shahid Beheshti University. (in Persian)
Nanavay Sabegh, B., Fegheh Majidi, A. & Mohammadi, A. (2019). Testing Stock Market Price Index Convergence: Evidence from OECD Countries. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 23(77), 169-194. (in Persian)
Ohwadua, O. E., & Ogunfiditimi, F.O. (2018). A Quantum Finance Model for Technical Analysis in the Stock Market. International. Journal of Engineering Inventions, 7(2), 7-12.
Ravan, A., Ravanshad, M. R., & Ravan, A. (2015). Application of psychological theories in financial and investment decisions. The Second National Conference on Sustainable Development in Educational Sciences and Psychology. Social and Cultural Studies, Tehran. (in Persian)
Safdarian, L., Foroghi, D., & Karimi, F. (2017). Investigating the role of using the concept of classification in establishing the relationship between convergence and the trend of stock movements in listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. Financial Engineering and Portfolio management, 8(31), 201-216. (in Persian)
Shirazian, Z. (2018). Volatility Clustering in financial markets based on the agen based model. Financial Engineering and Portfolio management, 9(34), 193-213. (in Persian)
Wahal, S., & Yavuz, M.D. (2013). Style investing comovement and return predictability. Journal of Financial Economics, 107(1), 136-154.
Wang, K.Y., Jiang, C.H., & Huang, Y.S. (2009). Market states and the Profitability of momentum strategies: Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange. The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, 3(1), 89-102.
Yan, H. (2013). The behavior of individual and aggregate stock prices. Mathematics and Financial Economics, 12, 135-159.
Yazgan, E. & Yilmazkuday, H. (2011). Price - Level Convergence: New Evidence from U.S. Cities. Economics Letters, 110, 76-78.
Zeti, A. (2014). Managing Financial Crisis in an Interconnected World: Anticipating theMega Tidal Waves. Per Jacobson Lecture. Available at: http://www.perjacobsson.org/ lectures/062914.pdf