University of Tehran
Financial Research Journal
1024-8153
14
2
2013
01
20
Financial Risk Assessment Model for LNG Projects, Case Study: Iran LNG Project
Financial Risk Assessment Model for LNG Projects, Case Study: Iran LNG Project
47
64
51058
10.22059/jfr.2013.51058
FA
Reza
Raei
Associate Prof., Management Faculty, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
Saeid
Fallahpour
Assistant Prof., Management Faculty, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
Homa
Amery Matin
Graduated in MBA, International Campus of Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
Journal Article
2014
08
04
In this study, in order to consider the effects of cash flow fluctuations on project profitability, the new risk kind indicators are proposed to assess projects risk. Firstly, Project cash flow calculates on the basis of cost and revenue data in an LNG project. Then distribution curves of two variables, oil price and interest rate of foreign loans, are utilized to determine distribution curve of net present value of cash flow in project life time through Monte Carlo simulation method. Based on this result distribution curve of profitability index and two risk indices, value at risk and expected shortfall, are estimated. The risk assessment results show that profit volatility in LNG projects greatly affected by dependence on feed gas price and factory revenue with oil price. Financial risk assessment of Iran LNG project, as the case study of this research, shows the deterministic price formula for calculating upstream gas is such that with rising oil prices and factory revenues, upstream gas prices to be raised proportionally. Despite the positive effect on reducing financial risk of the project, this relationship between revenues and costs has limited the range of shareholder profits, significantly.
In this study, in order to consider the effects of cash flow fluctuations on project profitability, the new risk kind indicators are proposed to assess projects risk. Firstly, Project cash flow calculates on the basis of cost and revenue data in an LNG project. Then distribution curves of two variables, oil price and interest rate of foreign loans, are utilized to determine distribution curve of net present value of cash flow in project life time through Monte Carlo simulation method. Based on this result distribution curve of profitability index and two risk indices, value at risk and expected shortfall, are estimated. The risk assessment results show that profit volatility in LNG projects greatly affected by dependence on feed gas price and factory revenue with oil price. Financial risk assessment of Iran LNG project, as the case study of this research, shows the deterministic price formula for calculating upstream gas is such that with rising oil prices and factory revenues, upstream gas prices to be raised proportionally. Despite the positive effect on reducing financial risk of the project, this relationship between revenues and costs has limited the range of shareholder profits, significantly.
https://jfr.ut.ac.ir/article_51058_39cd48977dc0f0726d860fac2610185d.pdf